Solar power helps cut fossil fuel use, but it brings a new waste problem. Millions of photovoltaic, or PV, panels will reach the end of their working life in the next few decades. A study published in Nature estimates that global solar panel waste could reach 297 million to 402 million tonnes by 2060.
This figure may sound distant, but the change has already begun. Most standard solar panels work for 25 to 30 years. Since many countries added large solar farms during the past two decades, the number of panels reaching the end of their life will rise fast between 2030 and 2060.
How much solar panel waste could India produce?
In 2020, the world produced about 20,000 tonnes of waste from retired PV panels. By 2060, the annual amount could rise to more than 19 million tonnes. China is expected to produce the largest share, at 112.8 million to 160.5 million tonnes over the period.
India could produce 26.8 million to 35.2 million tonnes of solar panel waste. This could account for about 8.6% to 9.2% of total global PV waste. The number shows why India needs a strong recycling system before old panels start piling up at scale.
A solar panel may look like a single piece of equipment, but it contains several layers and materials. Taking it apart needs the right tools, trained workers and safe handling rules. Simply sending damaged panels to a landfill can waste valuable materials and create risks from harmful substances.
Old panels contain valuable materials
Retired PV panels contain silicon, silver, copper and tellurium. Manufacturers can use these materials again to make new clean energy equipment. Recycling them can reduce the need for fresh mining and support the supply of materials needed for the energy transition.
Some panels may also contain lead and cadmium. These substances can harm people and the environment if workers handle them without care. Recycling plants need systems that can separate, recover and store these materials safely.
Glass makes up a large part of a typical solar panel. Recycling plants can recover the glass, aluminium frames and copper wiring. They can also use heat and other processes to recover silicon and small amounts of silver. The tiny amount of silver in one panel may seem unimportant, but millions of panels can turn it into a useful resource.
Recycling costs may fall
Solar panel recycling is not cheap today. The study estimates that processing one tonne of PV waste cost between 342 and 2,550 US dollars in 2020. Better technology and larger recycling plants could reduce this cost to about 55.9 to 402.7 dollars per tonne by 2040.
Recycling may become financially attractive between 2035 and 2040. At that point, the value of recovered materials could cover the cost of collection and processing in more cases. Transport will remain an important issue, since old panels need to reach recycling centres without adding too much cost.
The choice of recycling method also matters. The study found that processes using heat could offer some of the largest financial gains and cuts in carbon emissions. However, thermal treatment needs energy and careful pollution control. A method that recovers more material is not useful if it creates new environmental damage.
A large economic and climate benefit
Recycling all these panels could create an economic benefit of 529.1 billion to 935.5 billion US dollars. It could also prevent up to 3.32 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent emissions.
These gains would come from two sources. First, companies could sell recovered materials such as silver, copper and silicon. Second, manufacturers would need less energy to mine and process some raw materials. Recycling can also reduce the land needed for waste storage.
There is a small twist in this green story. Countries with better recycling plants, skilled workers and strong supply chains may receive most of the economic benefit. Poorer regions may end up exporting old panels as low-value scrap. In that case, they would carry the waste burden without gaining much from the useful materials inside it.
What governments and companies can do
Researchers say developing regions may receive only 1.3% to 2.1% of the global economic gains from PV recycling by 2060. This gap points to the need for international support, technology sharing and investment.
Governments can set recovery targets that require producers and recycling firms to collect old panels. They can also create clear rules for transport, storage and the treatment of panels that contain lead or cadmium.
One possible approach is a step-by-step subsidy system. Public funds can support recycling plants during the early years. Once a plant becomes commercially successful, the support can fall. This can help new businesses build capacity without making them depend on subsidies forever.
Solar companies can design panels that are easier to repair and take apart. They can label materials, track panels from installation to disposal and plan for recycling when they sell a new product. Investors can support plants that recover high-value materials instead of treating panels as ordinary scrap.
For India, the next steps include better data on panel installations, local recycling centres, trained workers and rules that connect solar producers with recyclers. The panels now working on rooftops and solar farms will not disappear when their power output falls. They will enter a new stage, where collection, safe processing and material recovery decide whether solar waste becomes a burden or a useful resource.
