India’s rooftop solar market could grow from about 17 GW today to 132 GW by 2030, according to a report by the Indian Solar Manufacturers Association (ISMA). The report also expects annual demand of 9 GW to 15 GW during this period.
This growth could change how homes use power. It could also create a large market for Indian makers of solar cells, modules, inverters and other system parts.
Why rooftop solar has room to grow
Rooftop solar lets a home produce power on its own roof. A household can use this power during the day and send extra power to the grid, based on the rules of its state and electricity provider.
India has a large number of homes, rising power use and many sunny days. These factors give rooftop solar a strong base. Yet adoption has not grown at the same pace across the country.
Solar projects make better financial sense in some states than others. Power prices, roof size, sunlight, local rules and the cost of installation all affect the payback period. The ISMA report says support from the government is helping rooftop solar reach homes in markets where the numbers may not look as attractive at first.
PM Surya Ghar scheme supports households
The PM Surya Ghar Muft Bijli Yojana is a key part of this growth story. The scheme began in February 2024 and aims to take rooftop solar to one crore homes by March 2027.
As of the latest figures in the report, India had 47.8 lakh rooftop solar installations. These systems had a combined capacity of 16.8 GW and had helped nearly 56.9 lakh families. The central government had paid more than Rs 31,515 crore in financial support.
Several state governments also offer their own subsidies. This can lower the upfront cost for homeowners, which remains one of the biggest barriers to adoption. For many families, the first question is not whether solar saves money. It is whether they can afford to install it in the first place.
The scheme aims to make that first step easier. A lower power bill is useful, but a lower installation bill may be what gets a family to open the door.
What 132 GW could mean for manufacturers
A larger rooftop solar market will need a steady supply of equipment. This includes:
- Solar cells that convert sunlight into electricity
- Solar modules, also called panels
- Inverters that convert the power into a form homes can use
- Mounting structures, cables and other balance-of-system parts
ISMA says this demand can support domestic manufacturing. More local production could help India build stronger supply chains and reduce its dependence on imported equipment.
Manufacturers may also gain a clearer reason to invest in new factories and expand existing plants. However, they need confidence that demand will continue for many years. A short scheme window can make long-term investment harder.
Why policy continuity matters
PM Surya Ghar is set to run until March 2027. ISMA has asked the government to share details about the next phase, including a possible PM Surya Ghar 2.0, by December 2026.
Early guidance could help households, installers, lenders and equipment makers plan better. It could also prevent a gap in demand when the current programme ends.
ISMA general secretary Amit Manohar said a clear policy roadmap would give consumers and industry more visibility. For manufacturers, this may affect decisions on factory capacity, hiring, product supply and local sourcing.
What could slow the market
Reaching 132 GW will depend on more than subsidies. States will need simple approval rules, reliable net-metering systems and enough trained installers. Distribution companies will also need systems to connect many small solar plants to local grids.
Homeowners may face other concerns, such as roof repairs, limited space, maintenance and confusion about the right system size. A large home does not always need a large solar plant. The right size depends on power use, roof area, sunlight and the local electricity tariff.
Financing will also matter. Many families may prefer to pay through a loan or monthly plan instead of paying the full cost at once. Clear warranties and dependable after-sales service can make these choices easier.
What households should watch
People who plan to install rooftop solar should check their latest electricity bills, roof condition and available sunlight before seeking quotes. They should compare the total system cost, subsidy, expected savings, warranty and service terms.
State rules can differ, so households should also check the process followed by their distribution company. The next updates on PM Surya Ghar, state subsidies and the possible second phase of the scheme will shape the choices available to consumers and installers through 2030.
